Physiologic dead space is independently associated with mortality and discharge of mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 ARDS: a retrospective study.

Physiologic dead space is a well-established independent predictor of death in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Here, we explore the association between a surrogate measure of dead space (DS) and early outcomes of mechanically ventilated patients admitted to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) because of COVID-19-associated ARDS. Retrospective cohort study on data derived from Italian ICUs during the first year of the COVID-19 epidemic. A competing risk Cox proportional hazard model was applied to test for the association of DS with two competing outcomes (death or discharge from the ICU) while adjusting for confounders. The final population consisted of 401 patients from seven ICUs. A significant association of DS with both death (HR 1.204; CI 1.019-1.423; p = 0.029) and discharge (HR 0.434; CI 0.414-0.456; p [Formula: see text]) was noticed even when correcting for confounding factors (age, sex, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, PaO[Formula: see text]/FiO[Formula: see text], tidal volume, positive end-expiratory pressure, and systolic blood pressure). These results confirm the important association between DS and death or ICU discharge in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19-associated ARDS. Further work is needed to identify the optimal role of DS monitoring in this setting and to understand the physiological mechanisms underlying these associations.

Locally Informed Simulation to Predict Hospital Capacity Needs During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenges hospital leaders to make time-sensitive, critical decisions about clinical operations and resource allocations. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the timing of surges in clinical demand and the best- and worst-case scenarios of local COVID-19-induced strain on hospital capacity, and thus inform clinical operations and staffing demands and identify when hospital capacity would be saturated. DESIGN: Monte Carlo simulation instantiation of a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) model with a 1-day cycle. SETTING: 3 hospitals in an academic health system. PATIENTS: All people living in the greater Philadelphia region. MEASUREMENTS: The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model (CHIME) (http://penn-chime.phl.io) SIR model was used to estimate the time from 23 March 2020 until hospital capacity would probably be exceeded, and the intensity of the surge, including for intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators. RESULTS: Using patients with COVID-19 alone, CHIME estimated that it would be 31 to 53 days before demand exceeds existing hospital capacity. In best- and worst-case scenarios of surges in the number of patients with COVID-19, the needed total capacity for hospital beds would reach 3131 to 12 650 across the 3 hospitals, including 338 to 1608 ICU beds and 118 to 599 ventilators. LIMITATIONS: Model parameters were taken directly or derived from published data across heterogeneous populations and practice environments and from the health system's historical data. CHIME does not incorporate more transition states to model infection severity, social networks to model transmission dynamics, or geographic information to account for spatial patterns of human interaction. CONCLUSION: Publicly available and designed for hospital operations leaders, this modeling tool can inform preparations for capacity strain during the early days of a pandemic. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: University of Pennsylvania Health System and the Palliative and Advanced Illness Research Center.